International Journal of Agriculture Extension and Social Development
2025, Vol. 8, Issue 8, Part H
Predictive modelling of vegetable crop productivity using partial compound growth rates in Chhattisgarh
Prachi Jaiswal and Sweta Ramole
The study investigates the growth dynamics of four major vegetable crops—cauliflower, okra, brinjal, and tomato—across different agro-climatic zones of Chhattisgarh during 2004–05 to 2021–22. Using secondary data from 17 districts, a relational database was developed to conduct compound growth analysis of area, production, and productivity. Regression-based models incorporating both periodic and annual effects were employed to estimate partial compound growth rates and predict future trends.
The results revealed sharp inter-district and crop-specific variations. Okra recorded significant declines in production in Jashpur (-95.96%) and productivity in Bastar (-98.12%), while tomato exhibited substantial negative growth in production in Durg (-84.23%) and Janjgir (-73.43%). Brinjal production in Kabirdham (-70.40%) and Raigarh (-65.06%) showed significant downward trends, whereas productivity in Dantewada (-24.51%) indicated structural stress. Cauliflower also reflected instability, with productivity in Janjgir (-85.83%) and production in Raigarh (-91.40%) showing statistically significant declines, though Bastar displayed comparatively better resilience in productivity.
Despite these challenges, some districts demonstrated stability or growth, suggesting that agro-climatic diversity and localized technological adoption influence crop performance. The predictive models suggest that productivity of cauliflower, okra, brinjal, and tomato is likely to improve in the future under targeted interventions. The findings underscore the heterogeneous nature of vegetable growth across Chhattisgarh, shaped by environmental, infrastructural, and management factors.
This study not only provides a comprehensive database-driven assessment of vegetable cultivation trends but also offers predictive insights to support evidence-based agricultural planning. The results are particularly relevant for policymakers, researchers, and extension agencies in designing region-specific strategies for sustainable vegetable production and farmer livelihood enhancement in Chhattisgarh.
Prachi Jaiswal, Sweta Ramole. Predictive modelling of vegetable crop productivity using partial compound growth rates in Chhattisgarh. Int J Agric Extension Social Dev 2025;8(8):513-520. DOI: 10.33545/26180723.2025.v8.i8h.2309
