International Journal of Agriculture Extension and Social Development

author(s)
Dr. S Agalya Rubasri, Dr. E Balaraman, M Praveen Kumar, KV Laya, KP Kowsika, A SivaKumari and S Jaya Kumar

abstract
Turmeric (Curcuma longa), a vital spice crop with substantial economic and cultural significance, positions India as the global leader in production and export. This study examines turmeric’s marketing dynamics, price behavior, and export trade patterns in Maharashtra, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, which collectively account for over 50 percent of Indian turmeric production. Utilizing time-series data from 2009 to 2024, the analysis employs econometric tools such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen’s co-integration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger causality, Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI), and Markov Chain analysis. Results from the ADF test confirmed that turmeric price series in all three states are integrated of order one, I(1). Johansen’s test identified a single co-integrating vector, indicating a long-run equilibrium among markets. VECM analysis revealed significant long-run price adjustments in Maharashtra, with weaker corrections in Telangana and Tamil Nadu. Granger causality showed unidirectional price influences from Tamil Nadu to Maharashtra and Telangana to Tamil Nadu. Price instability analysis indicated moderate volatility in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, but lower volatility in Telangana. Markov Chain analysis identified Morocco, Iran, UAE, and Bangladesh as stable importers of Indian turmeric, while the USA and Malaysia exhibited high volatility and low retention. The “other countries” category emerged as a reliable yet underexploited market. The study recommends policies to enhance market integration, stabilize prices, promote value addition, and diversify exports. Key suggestions include improving infrastructure, supporting processing units, empowering farmers, and establishing a Turmeric Export Development Board to reinforce India’s dominance in the global turmeric trade.